Oh Barbenheimer was there a motion picture event more enthralling? Even with juggernaut Oppie set to win many many Oscars,
there are plenty of pretty tight races. And if my calculations are
correct the door is open for almost
all of the best
picture nominees to win at least one award. Sorry Past Lives
we still love you but something always has to win nothing. Let’s get to it.
BEST
PICTURE
Will
Win: Oppenheimer
Could
Win: The Holdovers (but not really)
Should
Have Been Nominated: All Of Us Strangers
I
haven’t been this sure of my Best Picture prediction since… last
year. Since expanding beyond 5 nominees this category can be either
wholly predictable or nearly impossible to predict. This year the
Oppenheimer train is coming in full steam and nothing can really stop
it. Sometimes a smaller film can swoop in and beat the big epic…
your CODAs, your Spotlights. But those existed in years when the
presumed frontrunner was fairly divisive. No one truly hates
Oppenheimer and will be very high on most voter’s preferential
ballots. It’s also won all the precursors - SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice, PGA, Globes, DGA - so at this point it would
be a shock if it didn’t win. So what is the alternative? I’m not
sure really. In years past something like The Holdovers, a simple
but heart warming little movie, could easily beat the big bombastic
frontrunner. But I don’t think that can happen. Maybe if The
Holdovers wins in Original Screenplay it has a chance? But other
popular movies like Poor Things I think are too weird and divisive to
really make a dent in Oppenheimer's likely triumph. And at this point even Barbie doesn't stand much of a chance, even with all the backlash to Greta's directing snub and Margot's actress snub.
BEST
DIRECTOR
Will
Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Could
Win: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Should
Have Been Nominated: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
At this
point it would be such a surprise if Christopher Nolan didn’t
finally win his first Oscar. Glazer’s work on The Zone of Interest
is iconic as is Lanthimos’ surrealist work on Poor Things. Those
are visions that could of won in another year but this is Nolan’s
year.
BEST
ACTOR
Will
Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Could
Win: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Should
of Been Nominated: Andrew Scott, All Of Us Strangers
Last
year this category was hard to call because Austin Butler and Brendan
Fraser split so many of the precursor awards. Well Cillian won at
BAFTA and at SAG this year (and the Globes) so he’s pretty much the
frontrunner at this point. I’d say Paul Giamatti has a shot but his
winning feels highly unlikely at this point.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will
Win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Could
Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Should
of Been Nominated: Charles Melton, May December
It’s
Iron Man vs the Hulk in Supporting Actor this year. And Iron Man is
taking it. No one is beating Robert Downey Jr at this point not even
his Marvel buddy Mark Ruffalo. I guess Ryan Gosling is in second
place? That would be such a fun win and would definitely be even more
ironic than “Margot Robbie getting snubbed.”
BEST
ACTRESS
Will
Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Could
Win: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Should
of Been Nominated: Natalie Portman, May December
And
here we have a race! The battle of the Stones! At the beginning of
the season it seemed like Gladstone was taking it all. But then Emma
started winning a lot of stuff, but then Gladstone won at SAG so
frankly either one of them can take it. I’m giving the edge to Lily
since she won SAG and I was wrong last year for picking Michelle Yeoh
who also won SAG before winning the Oscar. Many think there could be
a split leaving room for a surprise Sandra Huller win. No no no.
Won’t happen. No lead performer has won Best Actress or Actor
without at least winning one major precursor award since Adrien Brody
in 2003. Sandra didn’t even win BAFTA like so many had predicted.
And the only reason Lily didn’t win there was because she wasn’t
nominated. Even win surprises happen here like Marion Cotillard,
Olivia Colman, etc, they also won at BAFTA and the Globes so they weren't really not all that shocking in retrospect. This is exactly why I thought the
people who all of a sudden started predicting Penelope Cruz for
Parallel Mothers in 2022 were literally insane.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will
Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Could
Win: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (not really)
Should
of Been Nominated: Julianne Moore, May December
Can
anyone really beat the season steamroller known as Da’Vine Joy Randolph?
Not really. Place all your chips here and don’t look back.
ANIMATED
FEATURE FILM
Will
Win: Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse
Could
Win: The Boy and the Heron
Flip a
damn coin cause I literally have no idea. Both films have things for
and against them. The Boy and the Heron is from Japanese animation
master Hayao Miyazaki who has only won once. Do voters really know
him and want to award him? And then we have the Spider-Verse sequel.
It feels like a miracle itself that the first Spider film won, let
alone the (admittedly even more critically acclaimed) sequel. I
really don’t know which way it’s gonna go. I think I’m leaving
Spider-Man since it won the Annie Award. It’s also worth noting
that only sequels that have won in this category were Pixar films:
Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will
Win: Oppenheimer
Could
Win: Poor Things
One of
Oppenheimer’s practically guaranteed technical wins. They even
“invented” black and white IMAX film stock cause it didn’t
exist before this.
COSTUME
DESIGN
Will
Win: Poor Things
Could
Win: Barbie
Ok I
was wrong about Elvis last year. That movie went home empty handed.
It’s possible Poor Things could end up with a bunch of awards or
none at all. But I think it will win here and in Production Design in
a very tight race with Barbie. I just thing the wildly crazy and
inventive costumes here will triumph over Barbies equally fun not
quite as impressive work. But really it could go either way.
DOCUMENTARY
(FEATURE)
Will
Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could
Win: Bobi Wine: The People's President
DOCUMENTARY
(SHORT SUBJECT)
Will
Win: The Last Repair Shop
Could
Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
FILM
EDITING
Will
Win: Oppenheimer
Could
Win: Anatomy of a Fall
I
honestly don’t know who wins here instead of Oppenheimer a
sprawling 3 hour epic that is entertaining, suspenseful, spans
different timelines, takes places over several years and is never
boring. It’s practically a miracle this movie is as good as it is
and it’s because it’s well-edited.
INTERNATIONAL
FEATURE FILM
Will
Win: The Zone of Interest
Could
Win: Society of the Snow (not really)
The
Zone of Interest has this in the bag. Especially because Anatomy of a
Fall isn’t nominated here (because France didn’t submit it, so it
wasn’t eligible). Even ignoring the fact that The Zone of Interest
is about a subject that is catnip to the Academy (the Holocaust) it’s
one of the most powerful, important, and flat-out fascinating films
ever nominated in this category. There is a reason it got the
nominations it did.
MAKEUP
AND HAIRSTYLING
Will
Win: Maestro
Could
Win: Poor Things
This is
actually one of the tougher technical categories for me to predict
this year. Usually this award will lineup with an acting win. It did
last year with The Whale. Maestro feels like the frontrunner based on
Bradley Cooper’s impressive transformation into composer Leonard
Bernstein. But Cooper isn’t the Best Actor frontrunner. I think it
could still win here because makeup that brings real life people to
life does well here. But don’t rule out something like the
sci-fi/fantasy heavy Poor Things. I mean even Oppenheimer has
impressive old age makeup.
MUSIC
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
Will
Win: Oppenheimer
Could
Win: Poor Things
Ludwig
Göransson is set to take home his second composing Oscar and he’s
not even 40. I’m honestly not sure how anyone else wins here. Poor
Things marks composer Jerskin Fendrix’s feature film debut and it’s
pretty inventive. Robbie Robertson who composed Killers of the Flower
Moon’s score died in August so I’m sure he’ll get some
emotional posthumous votes. Still think this is Oppenheimer’s to
lose.
MUSIC
(ORIGINAL SONG)
Will
Win: “What Was I Made For” from Barbie
Could
Win: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Barbies
only real compeition here is itself. I think the Academy will go with
the more “serious” song over the silly but fun “I’m Just
Ken.” But don’t count out Diane Warren who’s on her like
millionth nomination without a win. But she does have an honorary
Oscar.
PRODUCTION
DESIGN
Will
Win: Poor Things
Could
Win: Barbie
Another
Poor Things vs Barbie race and I think Poor Things just barely has
the edge. Either would be a deserving winner. I’m predicting,
perhaps foolishly, Poor Things for both this and Costume
Design.
SHORT
FILM (ANIMATED)
Will
Win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Could
Win: Letter to a Pig
SHORT
FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Will
Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Could
Win: Red, White and Blue
SOUND
Will
Win: Oppenheimer
Could
Win: The Zone of Interest
Best
Sound and Film Editing go hand in hand a lot lately – except for
last year – which is only one of the many reasons Oppenheimer will
win this one as well. Though The Zone of Interest is really all
about the sound design. I think it could of won in a weaker year of
nominees.
VISUAL
EFFECTS
Will
Win: Godzilla Minus One
Could
Win: The Creator
Nary a
Best Picture nominee in this bunch so I honestly have no idea what’s
gonna win. So many of the obvious picks like Oppenheimer, Barbie, or
Poor Things just didn’t make the cut. And there isn't an obvious
CGI visual spectacle ala Avatar this year. I honestly think a case
could be made for any of the five nominees. Only The Creator and Napoleon have nominations in other categories which could give them a leg up but really it could go any way. May the odds be ever in
your favor.
WRITING
(ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will
Win: American Fiction
Could
Win: Oppenheimer
Should
of Been Nominated: All Of Us Strangers
Oppenheimer
could sweep and win this award too. Or maybe disgruntled Greta Gerwin
fans will push her to win here, but it’s odd Adapted classification
doesn’t really do it any favors. Which is why the Academy may lend
a hand to the witty and fun American Fiction just the type of
delightful movie that tends to win screenplay Oscars.
WRITING
(ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will
Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could
Win: The Holdovers
Should
of Been Nominated: Saltburn
With
Barbie out of the running in this category and I’m fairly certain
this is the place the Academy can reward Anatomy of a Fall.
Especially since it’s no in the International Feature category. I
honestly thought at the beginning of the season that The Holdovers
would be running away with original screenplay wins leading up to the
Oscars but Anatomy of the Fall has shown much more support. But this
is in no way a done deal.
