Monday, January 23, 2023

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2023









Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

The Banshees of Inisherin

Top Gun: Maverick

TAR

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Whale

Triangle of Sadness

Alternates – Women Talking, Babylon

I feel fairly confident in eight of these picks. The biggest question mark for me is Women Talking which has rarely showed up in precursor awards. And hasn't even opened up wide yet (at least not near me). Therefore I'm going with The Whale which is a little film with a Best Actor frontrunner; and an English language epic comedic satire directed by a foreigner, Triangle of Sadness. I still think something like Babylon or Glass Onion could make it in but at this point feels doubtful.



Best Director

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field, TAR

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Edward Berger. All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternates: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis; James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

I think 4 of the 5 DGA noms make it in, with the Academy favoring more artistic or foreign films (sorry Joseph Kosinski) which is why someone like Edward Berger, Park Chan-wook, or the Triangle of Sadness guy feel possible. I'm going with Berger. I’m also not counting out notoriously snubbed Baz Luhrmann. People really seem to like that film.



Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, TAR

Michelle Yeoh. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Alternates: Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Ana de Armas, Blonde

I actually do think we're all overthinking this race and Michelle Williams gets in - despite her SAG snub - but I am putting Andrea Riseborough on my Gold Derby predictions because I have her at 100 - 1 odds and that would be awesome if it actually happened.



Best Actor

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Austin Butler, Elvis

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Bill Nighy, Living

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Alternates: I guess Tom Cruise??

Basically every category has 4 practical locks and an open 5th slot. I'd say Paul Mescal in a small film that has a lot of support (especially among foreign voters) feels inevitable. I still don't buy Tom Cruise getting in for basically playing Tom Cruise even though he's great in the film. I feels so unlike the Academy. I honestly don’t even know who makes it in, if not these five. The possibilities of Felix Kammerer, Jeremy Pope, and Hugh Jackman have been tossed around but I don’t seem them coming to fruition.



Best Supporting Actress

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Alternates: Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

This race is giving me palpitations. I'm going with the two All At Once girls, Kerry, Angela (who is the frontrunner apparently??) and Hong Chau who gave two great performances (the other is The Menu) and her film is very likely a potential BP nominee. But so is Dolly De Leon. I still think Michelle Williams could show up here throwing this race into complete turmoil.



Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Alternates: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Judd Hirsch is in like one scene and he's fine I guess? I've never even heard of The Good Nurse but everyone is predicting him. And they obviously love this Best Actor winner who was nominated twice in a row. But maybe The Fabelman guys cross each other out and we get some kind of wild surprise...



Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

The Whale

Glass Onion

All Quiet on the Western Front

She Said

Alternate - Living

It feels weird that She Said - an Oscar friendly flick that feels ripe for a total snub isn't more of a sure thing but if it gets nominated anywhere it's probably here. But that slot could easily go to Living or even Pinocchio.



Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

TAR

Triangle of Sadness

The Fabelmans

Alternates- Aftersun; Babylon

For some reason I have some weird feeling that there's going to be a surprising omission here like Stevie getting snubbed. Do the screenwriters really see him as a writer? Of course Tony Kushner is his co-writer so I could just be crazy. I really don’t know what the alternates are if not these five besides Aftersun so there ya go.



Best Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Empire of Light

Elvis

Alternates- The Batman, The Fabelmans

This feels like the only place to really reward Empire of Light and is Roger Deakins after all. For some reason there can only be so many "movies are magical" movies in this category so I'm going with the flashy Elvis over The Fabelmans -though I wouldn’t entirely be surprised to see Avatar snubbed here even though the first film won this category.



Best Costume Design

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Babylon

The Woman King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Alternates: Everything Everywhere All At Once; Corsage

I still think EEAAO has some pretty cool costumes so I'd be bummed if it doesn't make it but I guess Mrs Harris Goes to Paris will be that random movie that gets nominated here and nowhere else.



Best Film Editing

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternates: The Banshees of Inisherin; Avatar: The Way of Water

These feel right to me. Banshees could get in but I have no idea who would miss.



Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Whale

Elvis

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternates: Babylon; Blonde

I guess something like Blonde or Babylon or even Crimes of the Future could get in, which would make sense for a branch that very much likes to do its own thing.



Best Production Design

Babylon

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The Fabelmans

Alternates: All Quiet on the Western Front; Glass Onion

The fifth slot is The Fabelmans vs All Quiet on the Western Front. But sometimes we get an out of left field pick here ala Passengers. I could see something like Glass Onion getting in but there aren’t many super wild creative choices this year.



Best Score

The Fabelmans

Women Talking

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Alternates – Nope; All Quiet on the Western Front

Black Panther won this award a few years ago and it's possible it gets in again but I'm betting on these five led by previous winners John Williams, Hildur Guðnadóttir, Justin Hurwitz, Alexandre Desplat and previous nominee Carter Burwell. I'm hoping for a surprise by Nope here but I'm not holding my breath.

Best Song

Top Gun: Maverick, Hold My Hand

RRR, Naatu Naatu

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Lift Me Up

Tell It Like a Woman, Applause

Till, Stand Up

Alternates: Ciao Papa , Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio; Where the Crawdads Sing, Carolina

One of the hardest categories to predict even with a shortlist. RRR, Top Gun, and Black Panther feel like locks but who knows! All I know is I’m not betting against perennial nominee Diane Warren.



Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternates - Babylon, The Batman

This category has gotten way more competitive since the two sound categories merged a couple years ago and is now usually dominated by Best Pic noms.



Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

Top Gun: Maverick

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Alternates – All Quiet on the Western Front; Thirteen Lives

This category could potentially be made up entirely of sequels and franchise films. Which is why it wouldn't be too crazy to see a surprise or two here like Thirteen Lives or Nope which would be my personal pick. Even though I've heard branch members were impressed with JW:D it seems weird they'd start nominating this reboot franchise with the worst entry to date.

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Turning Red

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Wendell and Wild

My Father’s Dragon

Alternates- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; Strange World

The animation branch is finicky. There is always a beloved popular movie that gets snubbed here which is why I'm calling a Puss in Boots snub and going with the more artistic My Father's Dragon from the people who gave us the Oscar nominated The Secret of Kells. But I am in no way confident.



Best Documentary Feature

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

All That Breathes

Fire of Love

Navalny

Descendant

Alternate - Moonage Daydream



Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Decision to Leave

Close

Argentina, 1985

EO

Alternate – The Quiet Girl

I'm going with the one with the donkey for the fifth slot.



Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

New Moon

My Year of Dicks

Save Ralph

The Flying Sailor



Best Documentary Short

The Flagmakers

The Elephant Whisperers

38 at the Garden

How Do You Measure a Year?

Nuisance Bear



Best Live Action Short

Le Pupille

An Irish Goodbye

The Red Suitcase

Warsha

Nakam