Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
TAR
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Whale
Triangle of Sadness
Alternates – Women Talking, Babylon
I feel fairly confident in eight of these picks. The biggest question mark for me is Women Talking which has rarely showed up in precursor awards. And hasn't even opened up wide yet (at least not near me). Therefore I'm going with The Whale which is a little film with a Best Actor frontrunner; and an English language epic comedic satire directed by a foreigner, Triangle of Sadness. I still think something like Babylon or Glass Onion could make it in but at this point feels doubtful.
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, TAR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger. All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternates: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis; James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
I think 4 of the 5 DGA noms make it in, with the Academy favoring more artistic or foreign films (sorry Joseph Kosinski) which is why someone like Edward Berger, Park Chan-wook, or the Triangle of Sadness guy feel possible. I'm going with Berger. I’m also not counting out notoriously snubbed Baz Luhrmann. People really seem to like that film.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TAR
Michelle Yeoh. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternates: Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Ana de Armas, Blonde
I actually do think we're all overthinking this race and Michelle Williams gets in - despite her SAG snub - but I am putting Andrea Riseborough on my Gold Derby predictions because I have her at 100 - 1 odds and that would be awesome if it actually happened.
Best Actor
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Alternates: I guess Tom Cruise??
Basically every category has 4 practical locks and an open 5th slot. I'd say Paul Mescal in a small film that has a lot of support (especially among foreign voters) feels inevitable. I still don't buy Tom Cruise getting in for basically playing Tom Cruise even though he's great in the film. I feels so unlike the Academy. I honestly don’t even know who makes it in, if not these five. The possibilities of Felix Kammerer, Jeremy Pope, and Hugh Jackman have been tossed around but I don’t seem them coming to fruition.
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Alternates: Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
This race is giving me palpitations. I'm going with the two All At Once girls, Kerry, Angela (who is the frontrunner apparently??) and Hong Chau who gave two great performances (the other is The Menu) and her film is very likely a potential BP nominee. But so is Dolly De Leon. I still think Michelle Williams could show up here throwing this race into complete turmoil.
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Alternates: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Judd Hirsch is in like one scene and he's fine I guess? I've never even heard of The Good Nurse but everyone is predicting him. And they obviously love this Best Actor winner who was nominated twice in a row. But maybe The Fabelman guys cross each other out and we get some kind of wild surprise...
Best Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
The Whale
Glass Onion
All Quiet on the Western Front
She Said
Alternate - Living
It feels weird that She Said - an Oscar friendly flick that feels ripe for a total snub isn't more of a sure thing but if it gets nominated anywhere it's probably here. But that slot could easily go to Living or even Pinocchio.
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TAR
Triangle of Sadness
The Fabelmans
Alternates- Aftersun; Babylon
For some reason I have some weird feeling that there's going to be a surprising omission here like Stevie getting snubbed. Do the screenwriters really see him as a writer? Of course Tony Kushner is his co-writer so I could just be crazy. I really don’t know what the alternates are if not these five besides Aftersun so there ya go.
Best Cinematography
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Empire of Light
Elvis
Alternates- The Batman, The Fabelmans
This feels like the only place to really reward Empire of Light and is Roger Deakins after all. For some reason there can only be so many "movies are magical" movies in this category so I'm going with the flashy Elvis over The Fabelmans -though I wouldn’t entirely be surprised to see Avatar snubbed here even though the first film won this category.
Best Costume Design
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Babylon
The Woman King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Alternates: Everything Everywhere All At Once; Corsage
I still think EEAAO has some pretty cool costumes so I'd be bummed if it doesn't make it but I guess Mrs Harris Goes to Paris will be that random movie that gets nominated here and nowhere else.
Best Film Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternates: The Banshees of Inisherin; Avatar: The Way of Water
These feel right to me. Banshees could get in but I have no idea who would miss.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Whale
Elvis
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternates: Babylon; Blonde
I guess something like Blonde or Babylon or even Crimes of the Future could get in, which would make sense for a branch that very much likes to do its own thing.
Best Production Design
Babylon
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Fabelmans
Alternates: All Quiet on the Western Front; Glass Onion
The fifth slot is The Fabelmans vs All Quiet on the Western Front. But sometimes we get an out of left field pick here ala Passengers. I could see something like Glass Onion getting in but there aren’t many super wild creative choices this year.
Best Score
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Alternates – Nope; All Quiet on the Western Front
Black Panther won this award a few years ago and it's possible it gets in again but I'm betting on these five led by previous winners John Williams, Hildur Guðnadóttir, Justin Hurwitz, Alexandre Desplat and previous nominee Carter Burwell. I'm hoping for a surprise by Nope here but I'm not holding my breath.
Best Song
Top Gun: Maverick, Hold My Hand
RRR, Naatu Naatu
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Lift Me Up
Tell It Like a Woman, Applause
Till, Stand Up
Alternates: Ciao Papa , Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio; Where the Crawdads Sing, Carolina
One of the hardest categories to predict even with a shortlist. RRR, Top Gun, and Black Panther feel like locks but who knows! All I know is I’m not betting against perennial nominee Diane Warren.
Best Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternates - Babylon, The Batman
This category has gotten way more competitive since the two sound categories merged a couple years ago and is now usually dominated by Best Pic noms.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Alternates – All Quiet on the Western Front; Thirteen Lives
This category could potentially be made up entirely of sequels and franchise films. Which is why it wouldn't be too crazy to see a surprise or two here like Thirteen Lives or Nope which would be my personal pick. Even though I've heard branch members were impressed with JW:D it seems weird they'd start nominating this reboot franchise with the worst entry to date.
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Turning Red
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Wendell and Wild
My Father’s Dragon
Alternates- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; Strange World
The animation branch is finicky. There is always a beloved popular movie that gets snubbed here which is why I'm calling a Puss in Boots snub and going with the more artistic My Father's Dragon from the people who gave us the Oscar nominated The Secret of Kells. But I am in no way confident.
Best Documentary Feature
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
Navalny
Descendant
Alternate - Moonage Daydream
Best International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Decision to Leave
Close
Argentina, 1985
EO
Alternate – The Quiet Girl
I'm going with the one with the donkey for the fifth slot.
Best Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
New Moon
My Year of Dicks
Save Ralph
The Flying Sailor
Best Documentary Short
The Flagmakers
The Elephant Whisperers
38 at the Garden
How Do You Measure a Year?
Nuisance Bear
Best Live Action Short
Le Pupille
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Warsha
Nakam
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