Friday, February 22, 2019

Oscar Forecast: “Roma” With a Chance of “Green Book” and Five Other Movies. Yikes.


Update: Well Green Book pulled it off. It's somewhat surprising and yet not all that surprising as well. It's definitely a movie a majority of people liked and therefore worked wonders with the preferential ballot. Is it even close to the best filmmaking of the year? Hardly, but it's a fine movie. I'm sure it'll be remembered as an oddity in Oscar history when we look back on this bizarre year of solid films. But there is so much more to celebrate than Green Book's questionable win. Black Panther took home 3 Oscars - somewhat surprisingly - including Best Score. All three well deserving wins. A Spider-Man movie won an Oscar over Disney juggernauts and the night was filled with diverse winners of many colors. Every Best Picture nominee won something. Lady Gaga won her Oscar... but Glenn Close didn't. In what was totally a Marion Collitard moment, Olivia Colman was announced the Best Actresses surprising almost everyone. I think it came down to the fact that Olivia was too hard to ignore considering Close's film had only one nomination and was a mediocre film at best. This was the right decision. Besides, there are lots of Brits in the Academy, remember that. Spike Lee finally won an Oscar after decades of being ignored. The controversial Bohemian Rhapsody was actually the biggest winner of the night with 4 wins including Rami Malek's worthy Best Actor win, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Film Editing. It only lost one award it was nominated for: Best Picture. Take that, haters. In a night of surprises and bad picks (I got 15 out 24 correct) I'm glad I saw the win for Free Solo coming and I'm glad I changed my Editing pick to Bohemian Rhapsody from Vice at the last minute. Also getting 2 of the 3 short categories right is always a win. Til next year... See the winners here




On Sunday, second Christmas arrives in the form of the 91st annual Academy Awards. Let’s get into it. Fair warning: the following write-up contains gratuitous amounts of Oscar nerdiness.

BEST PICTURE
I’ve been wrong the last three years in a row and it would be nice if I could get this right again. It seems like only yesterday I had a seven year stretch of correctly predicted BP winners (The Departed through Argo). And then something… funny happened. The Academy’s tastes began to shift, there was a whiff of change in the air, and they became - dare I say - unpredictable. I couldn’t even correctly predict last year’s win for “The Shape of Water” which actually makes the most sense in hindsight. It makes for an exciting show but for someone who spends the winter months trying to decipher which way the Academy will go, it’s anxiety inducing. And yet again here we are in a wacky year where “the rules” – ie, SAG noms, “requisite nominations” - that used to be very helpful - will be thrown out the window yet again. For several years it seemed like the SAG Best Cast category was the unofficial bellwether as to what could eventually win the Best Picture Oscar. Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land – all failed to get a Best Cast nomination at SAG and all failed to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So how could The Shape of Water possibly win BP without that same nomination? But it did! It did win. I maintain that Three Billboard’s lack of a directing nomination was telling. Sure, Argo pulled it off just a few years ago but there was a rallying cry behind Ben Affleck’s snub; no one seemed to care that Marin McDonagh got shafted.

And that is why I am somewhat hesitantly predicting a win for Roma. A film that was not nominated at SAG but still received two somewhat surprising Oscar acting nods for two of its actresses. I won’t even get into Roma’s lack of an editing nod – Birdman didn't get one and still won. But I think it’s because the Academy didn’t want to nominate Alfonso Cuaron literally 8 times. Some are predicting a victory for “Green Book.” But it’s lack of a directing nomination is telling, not to mention its SAG nomination snub. However, with the way the preferential ballot works a lot of these “rules” feel more less and less helpful. A legitimate argument could be made for ALL EIGHT BP NOMINEES. That is unprecedented. It was so much easier when it was The King’s Speech vs The Social Network or Birdman vs Boyhood or Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan. Ok bad example. So I’m officially going with Roma, which just triumphed at BAFTA and its hard to predict a BP/Director split to I’m sticking with it. Unfortunately, it seems like A Star is Born is just happy to be nominated.

Will win: “Roma”
Should win: “A Star is Born”
Should have been nominated: “A Quiet Place”


DIRECTING
If the “rules” I speak of have become less predictive the last few years there’s one that has truly stayed the course: DGA. This award has a tremendously predictive history. Alfonso Cuaron won at DGA and is not surprisingly on his way to claim his second Best Directing Oscar. And that’s fine and all but what a great opportunity it would have been to reward Spike Lee (which will probably happy in Screenplay).

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Should win: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Should have been nominated: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Controversy aside, I’m pretty certain that Rami Malek is going to take this for Bohemian Rhapsody. Even people who hate the movie say he’s the best thing about it. He won the Globe, SAG and BAFTA. It would be an upset if he lost at this point. Bale or Cooper could win but I’d be shocked if Malek loses.

Will win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should have been nominated: John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
What a crazy trajectory the ladies in this category have had. Another young vs old, newbie vs veteran narrative took shape this year as it became Gaga vs Glenn. Yes Glenn Close has yet to win an Oscar but does she really need it for The Wife? It’s a mediocre movie and she’s fine in it but to think Gaga and Colman will lose a deserving award to a lifetime achievement honor is just sad (though Gaga is really in third here considering she’s a lock for a win in the Song category). At this point after Close’s surprise Globe victory and powerful speech it’s hers to lose.

Will win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Should win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Should have been nominated: Toni Collette, “Hereditary”


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I don’t hate “Green Book” as much as other people do and Mahershala is fine in the film. But I don’t quite get the need to give the guy another Oscar so quickly after winning for Moonlight. A win for Ali feels like another lock even though this category sometimes ends up rewarding veterans: your Christopher Plummers, your Alan Arkins, your George Clooneys, your James Coburns, etc. So a surprise win for Sam Elliott wouldn’t be the craziest thing to happen.

Will win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Should win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Should have been nominated: Michael B. Jordan, “Black Panther”


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
What a weird category this year. Regina King feels like the front runner but she wasn’t strangely not nominated at SAG and at BAFTA. It’s very rare for a performer to win an Oscar after being snubbed at SAG but it has happened twice: Marcia Gay Harden and Christoph Waltz. (Fun fact: Harden’s never even been nominated at the Golden Globes for any role). If King doesn’t win it’ll probably go to Rachel Weisz, who has already won in this category (against Amy Adams I might add). Adams could win I guess but it feels like no one really seems to care much about Vice these days. I thought she was fine in the film and wouldn’t mind her finally winning her first Oscar.

Will win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should win: Amy Adams, “Vice”
Should have been here: Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Even if Spike Lee isn’t going to win for Directing BlacKkKlansman he’s most likely to triumph for helping to write BlacKkKlansman. This isn’t quite a slam-dunk – Can You Ever Forgive Me? surprised many by winning the WGA – and there’s a lot of affection for If Beale Street Could Talk and its source material. Having said that, it feels increasingly difficult for non-BP nominees to win in the screenplay categories (the last time a non-BP nominee won in this category was 1998’s Gods & Monsters)

Will win: “BlacKkKlansman”
Should win: “BlacKkKlansman”
Should have been nominated: “Black Panther”


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
This category is a tad more welcoming to non-BP fare (The last time a non-BP nominee won in the Original Screenplay category was 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). I think this comes down to Green Book vs The Favourite. This will be a very important category to watch. If Green Book wins it could very well win Best Picture. If The Favourite wins it’s highly unlikely that Green Book will take the cake. I’m guessing The Favourite since it feels like the most Original of these nominees and it doesn’t help that one of Green Book’s screenwriters (Nick Vallelonga) has been in some hot water recently.

Will win: “The Favourite”
Should win: “The Favourite”
Should have been nominated: “Eighth Grade”


CINEMATOGRAPHY
I’d be surprised if Alfonso Cuaron doesn’t win for lensing his own film. It’s certainly unprecedented. The Cinematography guild wasn’t having it (Cold War won at ASC) but I think the Academy will reward the film here.

Will win: “Roma”
Should win: “Roma”
Should have been nominated: “If Beale Street Could Talk”


COSTUME DESIGN
It’s period vs. fantasy. Usually it’s dumb to bet against a flashy period piece drama featuring royals but the costuming in Black Panther is also gorgeous and unique. Flip a coin really, but I think The Favourite will probably win out. And if Black Panther surprises with a win I’ll be happy to be wrong.

Will win: “The Favourite”
Should win: “Black Panther”
Should have been nominated: “Crazy Rich Asians”


FILM EDITING
Another bizarre category filled with nontraditional nominees. Where’s the random action movie? Where’s the war film? There’s nothing too flashy or obvious about any of these nominees; they’re all fine. I think Vice, which won at BAFTA, will probably win because it arguably has the “flashiest” editing of the nominees, with lots of insert cross-cutting scenes. Bohemian Rhapsody could win here as music films tend to do well in this category and everyone knows that the troubled production of this film was truly saved in the editing room. So don’t be shocked if Bohemian Rhapsody pulls it off.

Will win: “Vice”
Should win: “Vice”
Should have been nominated: “A Star is Born”


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Vice will probably win for transforming Christian Bale into Dick Chaney. The academy loves a good transformation (there’s a reason why films like The Iron Lady, Darkest Hour, La Vie en Rose have won here). Anyone who looks at stills from Border would be impressed with that work but have enough people seen the film or even know of it?

Will win: “Vice”
Should win: “Vice”
Should have been nominated: “Black Panther”


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
With “First Man’s” gorgeous score shockingly left out, this race literally comes down to race: the three front runners feature predominately African American casts: If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther. I think Beale Street will take it but wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these three win.

Will win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should win: “Black Panther”
Should have been nominated: “First Man”


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
The only real sure thing of the night besides Best Director. Lady Gaga, half way to her EGOT.

Will win: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Should win: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Should have been nominated: “Ashes” from “Deadpool 2”


PRODUCTION DESIGN
A lot of times this award is tied closely to Costume Design. So this is another battle between Art Directors Guild winners & front runners Black Panther and The Favourite. The Academy has been known to embrace worlds created with the help of computers so a win for Black Panther wouldn’t be unheard of, but I won’t be surprised if The Favourite wins this if they also win for Costumes. Flip a coin.

Will win: “The Favourite”
Should win: “Black Panther”
Should have been nominated: “Ready Player One”


SOUND EDITING
This category isn’t very welcoming to non-BP nominees as I’ve recently come to find out. Skyfall won in 2013 but it tied with Zero Dark Thirty. But there’s a reason A Quiet Place was nominated for this award. It’s the film most reliant on sound effects. However, it’s not just sound people voting so I wouldn’t be shocked if something else, like Bohemian Rhapsody takes this one. I’m totally going out on a limb here.

Will win: “A Quiet Place”
Should win: “A Quiet Place”
Should have been nominated: “Ready Player One”


SOUND MIXING
I think it’s a race between the two music-based films. Flip a coin, but don’t count out First Man.

Will win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win: “First Man”
Should have been nominated: “Mission: Impossible – Fallout”


VISUAL EFFECTS
Generally, in this category Best Picture winners tend to win. Of course “Ex Machina” beat several BP nominees that year. Usually the movie that wins is the film most likely to be a BP nominee, ie “Blade Runner 2049” and “Interstellar.” That film this year would be “First Man” (it’s also the only film of the five with multiple nominations) but the film’s effects are more subtle so I think the Academy will finally embrace the Marvel Cinematic Universe with a win for the effects-heavy Avengers. Though they really should be rewarding “Ready Player One” which has some of the most impressive full sequences of CGI since “Avatar.” (It’s also crazy that no Spielberg film has won this award since 1993’s “Jurassic Park.”)

Will win: “Avengers: Infinity War”
Should win: “Ready Player One”
Should have been here: “Black Panther”


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
It’s rare for a non-Disney or non-Pixar film to win here, but I think considering the Disney films are sequels don’t really help their cause. Sure “Toy Story 3” pulled it off, but that was a Best Picture nominee. I think “Spider-Man” will prevail since it has been winning every other top animation award but don’t be too shocked if there’s an upset. Remember when “Brave” beat out “Wreck-It Ralph?” That still hurts.

Will win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should of been nominated: They actually got this category right this year


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
How does a film in this category that is also a BP nominee not win here? There is some consensus that those voting for Roma for BP would be hesitant to also vote for it here but that’s nonsense. Having said that, a surprise win for “Cold War” wouldn’t be the craziest of upsets.

Will win: “Roma” (Mexico)
Should win: “Roma” (Mexico)


DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
A win for RBG would be rightfully politically motivated which I have no problem with and Ruth Bader Ginsburg has literally been everywhere lately (mostly in the hospital recovering actually but she’s a tough old broad). Having said that, the film itself while completely enjoyable isn’t necessary a feat of magnificent non-fiction filmmaking. That would be Free Solo, a big scale, nail-biter of a film about a man who attempts to climb Yosemite’s 3,000 ft El Capitan Wall without any ropes or safety gear. Either film has a decent shot.

Will win: “Free Solo”
Should win: “Free Solo”
Should have been here: “Three Identical Strangers”


DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Will win: “Period. End of Sentence.


SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Will win: “Bao”


SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Will win: “Marguerite”


3 comments:

Minnesota Matt said...

Who and what determines nominees?

Also, Redbox is having a fun, little contest you should join. Not for the free movies, but it's fun to vote, print out your ballot and monitor points toward free rentals. Fun anyway for a dork like me. More fun as a group, of course.

Chris said...

The Academy is an organization of about 6,000 film professionals....like cinematographers, sound designers, costume designers, screenwriters, actors, directors, producers, publicists, etc. A select number of members are invited each year, the past few years they've been trying to diversify and add more women and people of color. The group has historically skewed white and male since its inception and they're trying to fix that. Also, once you're a member you're one for life, so a majority of the members are old people who worked in the industry decades ago, which is why sometimes you get more conservative, "traditional" types of films nominated. That's why a movie like Black Panther being nominated is such a big deal. Nominees are determined by peer groups. So writers nominate writers, actors nominate actors, etc. But once the nominees are determined everyone gets to vote for all categories. [end of nerdgasm]

steve said...


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