On Tuesday January 24th the Academy of Motion
Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their nominees for the 89th
Annual Academy Awards (controversially doing away with their
traditional early am live audience announcement filled with press and
publicists and instead going for some kind of pre-taped live stream).
Since this is my version of football season, I sort of take this
stuff seriously, so without further ado I present my 90% fearless
Oscar nomination predictions. On with the show...
Best Picture
OK, so here’s what
everyone is wondering: is “Deadpool” really gonna be nominated
for Best Picture or what? Heck no. But you know what? It’s way
closer to being nominated than anyone would have ever thought. Sure
its WGA nod was a surprise, but plenty of ineligibilities paved
the way for it to show up there. And the PGA is a funny group who likes
to nominate films with interesting backstories or populist films that
make a lot of money. They previously nominated “Star Trek,” “The
Dark Knight,” “Ex Machina,” “Skyfall,” and “Bridesmaids,”
etc, none of which made into the big race at the Oscars. The biggest
question is how many nominees will there be? 8 and 9 have been the
magic number the last five years so that seems likely again. But what
about “Silence,” the polarizing Martin Scorsese film? Every
Scorsese film has been nominated since 2002 except for “Shutter
Island” (which was released in February that year). If not
“Silence,” then why not go with what could possibly surprise many
and that's the standard Oscar-bait pick in the form of a glossy Meryl
Streep movie: Florence Foster Jenkins. Then there's “Jackie” which doesn't
seem to have much traction and “Nocturnal Animals” which seems to
be surprising many (especially with its 9 BAFTA nods).
Here are 10
projected nominees in likelihood of being nominated:
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Manchester by the
Sea”
“Hell or High
Water”
“Lion”
“Arrival”
“Hidden Figures”
“Fences”
“Florence
Foster Jenkins”
alternates -
“Nocturnal Animals,” “Jackie”
Best Director
I feel pretty
confident in four of these predictions. The one I’m not so sure
about is Garth Davis, who surprised many (myself included) by showing
up in the DGA noms. The DGA and Academy rarely goes perfect five for
five, so who to change? The Academy is a smaller group and tends to
surprise in this category by letting in the helmers of smaller films.
Don’t be surprised to see someone like David McKenzie in there or
even Denzel or Mel; this branch isn’t opposed to nominating
actors-turned-directors after all.
Projected
nominees:
Denis Villeneuve
(“Arrival”)
Damien Chazelle (“La
La Land”)
Garth Davis (“Lion”)
Kenneth Lonergan
(“Manchester by the Sea”)
Barry Jenkins
(“Moonlight”)
Alternate –
David McKenzie (“Hell or High Water”)
Best Actor
I’d be pretty
surprised if the final five didn’t end up being these five. What
are the possibilities? Jake Gyllenhaal surprised everyone by showing
up with a BAFTA nod for “Nocturnal Animals.” The Brits loved the
film, could the British members of the Academy swing in his favor?
It’s possible, especially considering his still-shocking
“Nightcrawler” snub. After that the possibilities thin out…
maybe Joel Edgerton in “Loving” a movie that hasn’t quite
caught on this season. Months ago Tom Hanks would have been a
frontrunner but “Sully” has seemed to have stalled in the water
so to speak.
Projected
nominees:
Casey Affleck
(“Manchester by the Sea”)
Andrew Garfield
(“Hacksaw Ridge”)
Ryan Gosling (“La
La Land”)
Viggo Mortensen
(“Captain Fantastic”)
Denzel Washington
(“Fences”)
Alternate –
Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nocturnal Animals”)
Best Actress
The most crowded Best Actress race in some years, there will be no
filler nominees this year (unless you count the trademarked Streep
Slot). There are about eight actresses vying for a spot including
Annette Bening and Tarji P. Henson but their films are sort of
late-breaking, though it wouldn't be shocking to either of them show
up here. Ditto Ruth Nega whose film Loving doesn't seem to have much
traction anymore, and then there's wild card Emily Blunt who has both
a SAG and BAFTA nomination to her credit in a generally hated film.
She remains the big question mark in this race. After all is said is
done, Bening seems to have the best shot of showing up outside my
predicted five.
Projected
nominees:
Amy Adams
(“Arrival”)
Isabelle Huppert
(“Elle”)
Natalie Portman
(“Jackie”)
Emma Stone (“La La
Land”)
Meryl Streep
(“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
alternate –
Annette Bening, (“20th Century Women”)
Best Supporting
Actor
Let me start by saying that I'm going with Aaron Taylor-Johnson
because of statstical reasons. Every Best Supporting Actor winner at
the Golden Globes has gone on to receive an Oscar nomination for the
past 40 years. Normally I'd discount such a thing as a fluke, but
then he showed up at BAFTA. Sure he's British and some argue he won
at the Globes because of the whole gift basket controversy but I feel
like history is on my side. Having said that this category really is
wide open, though I'd be surprised if Ali, Bridges, and Patel didn't
show up here. The one who I finally ended up taking out of my final
five is Lucas Hedges and though he certainly deserves to be nominated
for “Manchester by the Sea,” it's his young age working against
him. Though I would not be surprised to see him show up on this list.
Hugh Grant remains the question mark because he could fill that
“seasoned veteran who's never been nominated before” slot. Also
in contention is Kevin Costner though it remains to be seen how the
late-breaking hit “Hidden Figures” will do with overall
nominations.
Projected nominees:
Mahershala Ali
(“Moonlight”)
Jeff Bridges (“Hell
or High Water”)
Hugh Grant
(“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Dev Patel (“Lion”)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
(“Nocturnal Animals”)
alternate -
Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Best Supporting
Actress
Overall, I'm pretty confident in these five, but a surprise could
arise in the form of either Greta Gerwig from “20th
Century Women” or even Janelle Monae from “Hidden Figures.” The
biggest shock of all would be Viola Davis being nominated in the Best
Actress category which would be crazy itself.
projected
nominees:
Viola Davis
(“Fences”)
Naomie Harris
(“Moonlight”)
Nicole Kidman
(“Lion”)
Octavia Spencer
(“Hidden Figures”)
Michelle Williams
(“Manchester by the Sea”)
alternate –
Greta Gerwig “20th Century Women”)
Best Adapted
Screenplay
Many were surprised when Moonlight was declared an Adapted script
(while in other precurer awards like WGA it competed in the Original
category). This change most likely will bump out “Nocturnal
Animals” though it could show up if the Writers Branch aren't
feeling any of the other potential Best Picture hopefuls.
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
alternate -
“Nocturnal Animals”
Best Original
Screenplay
This category has much more room to play than the Adapted category as
most of the potential Best Picture nominees come from adapted works.
That bodes well for the likes of “The Lobster” and “Captain
Fantastic” which aren't looking to score many other nominations
outside of here and Best Actor.
Projected
nominees:
“Captain
Fantastic”
“Hell or High
Water”
“La La Land”
“The Lobster”
“Manchester by the
Sea”
alternate -
“Jackie”
Best
Cinematography
“Arrival”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”
alternate -
“Jackie”
Best Costume
Design
“The Dressmaker”
“Fantastic Beasts
and Where to Find Them”
“Florence Foster
Jenkins”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
alternate -
“Allied”
Best Film Editing
“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Manchester by the
Sea”
“Moonlight”
alternate - “Hell
or High Water”
Best Makeup and
Hairstyling
This is Deadpool's best shot at Oscar glory though it has some tough
competition in the form of “Star Trek Beyond.”
projected
nominees:
“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster
Jenkins”
“A Man Called Ove”
alternate - “Star
Trek Beyond”
Best Original
Score
One of my favorite categories, the Best Score category certainly is
easier to predict than “Best Song” but the music branch is a
tough group to crack. Newcomers rarely show up here which is why
yours Thomas Newmans and John Williams show up constantly. If your
music has a foreign sounding flair to it certainly helps, which bodes
well for “Lion” but don't be surprised to find Academy favorite
Michael Giachinno show up for “Rogue One” though it's difficult to
call who would be left out. "Passengers," "Kubo and the Two Strings," and "Hidden Figures" are also in play.
Projected nominees:
“The BFG”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
alternate -
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
Best Original
Song
The music branch is a finnicky bunch and so the Best Song category
is notoriously difficult to predict. Many usually predict the popular
songs but they so rarely make it in. Sometimes they do (in the case
of Everything is Awesome from The LEGO Movie and sometimes they don't
like See You Again from “Furious Seven”). It's best to start
with musicals and Disney movies and then go from there. It must be
said it would be a crime if a song from “Sing Street” wasn't
nominated.
Projected
nominees:
“Audition (The
Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land”
“City of Stars”
from “La La Land”
“Dancing with Your
Shadow” from “Po”
“Drive it Like You
Stole It” from “Sing Street”
“How Far I’ll
Go” from “Moana”
alternate -
“Runnin'” from “Hidden Figures”
Best Production
Design
“Fantastic Beasts
and Where to Find Them”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“The Handmaiden”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
alternate -
“Silence”
Best Sound
Editing
“Arrival”
“Deepwater
Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Rogue One: A Star
Wars Story”
“Sully”
alternate - “The
Jungle Book”
Best Sound Mixing
“Arrival”
“Deepwater
Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Rogue One: A Star
Wars Story”
alternate - “The
Jungle Book”
Best Visual
Effects
“Deepwater
Horizon”
“Doctor Strange”
“The Jungle Book”
“Rogue One: A Star
Wars Story”
alternate -
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
Best Animated
Feature Film
“Kubo and the Two
Strings”
“My Life as a
Zucchini”
“Moana”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”
alternate -
“Finding Dory”
Best Documentary
Feature
“Cameraperson”
“I Am Not Your
Negro”
“O.J.: Made in
America”
“13th”
“Weiner”
alternate - “The
Eagle Huntress”
Best Foreign
Language Film
“Tanna”
(Australia)
“Land of Mine”
(Denmark)
“Toni Erdmann”
(Germany)
“The Salesman”
(Iran)
“A Man Called Ove”
(Sweden)
alternate - “My
Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)