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Best Picture
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Could Win: Sinners
Should of Been Nominated: Weapons
One of the closer Best Picture races of recent years. One Battle After Another feels like it was meant to win this award back when it was released in the fall. While the stylish horror flick Sinners is the more unconventional pick but it has lasted since its spring release to become a mainstream hit. Not to mention the fact that is broke the Oscar nomination record with 16 nods. How could it not go all the way? But the movie with the most nominations doesn't always win this award even if it ties or breaks records, right La La Land? But in such a close race honestly either one can take it. It’s honestly a shame they have to go up against each other because frankly I want them both to win. Can’t there just be a tie??
Best Director
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Who Could Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Should of Been Nominated: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
The Oscar statuette has eluded PT Anderson since his first nomination for writing Boogie Nights back in 1997. But he’s likely gonna win several on Sunday night with this one practically a guarantee since he won the DGA. The directing Oscar and DGA rarely disagree though it has happened before… so watch out for Sinners’ Ryan Coogler to possibly upset here if it ends up being a sweep. I don’t really think it’ll happen, but ya never know.
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Who Could Win: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Should of Been Nominated: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Oh dear lord what a race! For the first time in quite awhile, the Best Actor race is much more suspenseful and dramatic than the Best Actress race. This has always felt like Timothee’s to lose but his campaigning has likely left a bad taste in voters’ mouths not to mention is viral comments about dissing ballet and opera – even if its been blown way out of proportion. Of course that clip didn’t really go viral until the last day of voting so I’m not sure how much effect its had, but most people seem to be going with SAG winner Michael B. Jordan for the win here. Those who look to BAFTA for help are out of luck because that award went to a British actor who isn’t nominated – or even eligible – in this Oscar category. I think enough goodwill and overall support of Sinners will likely push Michael B. Jordan over the finish line. But honestly flip a coin. Frankly ANYONE in this five could win and it wouldn’t be all that shocking. I guess Leo can win, though he hasn’t won anything leading up to this so that feels weird. The last time that happened was when Denzel won for Training Day without winning any precursor awards. Same for Ethan Hawke who is also the only one in this category not in a Best Picture nominee. I think his nomination is his reward frankly. But look out for Wagner Moura who won the Globe and is also in a respected Best Picture nominee. This is certainly a race!
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Who Could Win (not really): Rose Bryne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Should of Been Nominated: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Jessie Buckley, go get your Oscar!
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Who Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Should of Been Nominated: Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Another close race with Penn having the advantage of wining both industry prizes SAG and BAFTA. He’s the most likely winner but not exactly a sure bet. I mean do they really want to give him a THIRD Oscar? Supporting races can be notoriously difficult to call. They could go the Globes route and reward another respected veteran Stellan, but I honestly think it was weird he couldn’t even win at BAFTA. Some say Delroy from Sinners could pull it off, though that would be some rare Marcia Gay Harden powers right there.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Who Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Should of Been Nominated: Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
Amy Madigan has SAG and Critics’ Choice behind her, while Teyana won the Globe, and Wunmi won BAFTA. This race sort of reminds me of the 2007 Tilda Swinton year when she pulled off the win after each precursor went to a different performer. The BAFTA winner ultimately prevailed so Wunmi can easily take this especially if Sinners is gonna go all the way. Even though Madigon won at SAG I’m concerned that was more of a “we’re actors and we love actors” sort of thing the way Demi won last year but lost to Mikey at the Oscars. I’m personally rooting for Madigan, whose main disadvantage is being the only nominee from her film, but her performance and role is instantly iconic and a win here would ultimately just be do darned COOL. Like real Ruth Gordon in Rosemary’s Baby vibes.
And the rest:
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Could Win: Sentimental Value
Should of Been Nominated: Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: Hamnet
Should of Been Nominated: Wake Up Dead Man
Best Animated Feature
Who Will Win: K Pop Demon Hunters
Who Could Win: Zootopia 2
Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Who Could Win: The Alabama Solution
Best International Feature
Who Will Win: Sentimental Value
Who Could Win: The Secret Agent
Best Casting
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Could Win: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Could Win: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: Frankenstein
Who Could Win: Sinners
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Could Win: F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Frankenstein
Who Could Win: Sinners
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: Frankenstein
Who Could Win: Sinners
Best Score
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Could Win: One Battle After Another
Best Song
Who Will Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Who Could Win: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Sound
Who Will Win: F1
Who Could Win: Sinners
Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Avatar: Fire & Ash
Who Could Win: Sinners
Best Animated Short
Who Will Win: Butterfly
Who Could Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Best Documentary Short
Who Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Who Could Win: Armed Only with a Camera
Best Live Action Short
Who Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Who Could Win: A Friend of Dorothy
