Saturday, January 22, 2011

2011 Oscar Nomination Predictions

UPDATED: So here we have it people, the moment everyone in the world has been eagerly waiting for: the Oscar nominations have been revealed! There were some surprises, but not too many outright shocks. In Best Picture, Winter's Bone edged out The Town (which only received one nomination for Jeremy Renner). Also John Hawkes, who had scored a surprise SAG nod, edged out Andrew Garfield of The Social Network, I thought that could happen to him or Mark Ruffalo, who got in. I think I'm mostly surprised by Christopher Nolan's Best Director snub (both the Coens and David O. Russell got in) which must certainly sting especially after haven been snubbed for The Dark Knight in 2008. but he is a best picture and best screenplay nominee. Inception didn't even get an editing nomination, which pretty much nulls its Best Picture chances, but let's be honest, did it even have a shot? Hailee is in Supporting, but so is Jacki Weaver, who booted out Mila Kunis. And good job for nominated Michelle Williams who is great in Blue Valentine. Javier Bardem knocked out Robert Duvall, which I thought could happen, thank god, because i have no desire to watch Get Low. I think I'm surprised Waiting for Superman didnt make it into the Documentary category since it was the perceived frontrunner. And only four song nominations and none for Burleseque! Cher is pissed that she won't be able to perform at the Oscars! I'm glad the Academy's music branch showed it could be hip and cool by actually nominating "The Social Network" for Best Score; could it actually win? Danny Elfman gets skunked again. I'm proud of my Unstoppable prediction in the Sound Editing field which no one seemed to predict except me. And I'm not quite sure why The King's Speech is nominated for Sound Mixing, but oh well. Overall there were enough surprises to keep things fun and not enough snubs to truly piss me off. I wish The Town was a best picture nominee, mostly because I just assumed it would make it months ago, oh well. See you on Feburary 27th!
I correctly predicted 83 of the 107 nominees.

Check out all the nominees here:

[from Saturday]: On January 25the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards. Who else is super excited? Trying to predict how the Academy will think it sometimes pretty tricky; and yet sometimes it’s painfully predictable. Most of the time most categories will have four sure things and one pesky open slot in which any movie could fit. This year for nearly every category there are six films vying for only five slots. And this is the second year the Academy will nominate ten films for Best Picture and there are eleven solid contenders. Which will they leave out? There are several things I’ll be keeping my eye out for this Tuesday. First being, how many nominations will “127 Hours” get? It seemed like a movie that would be Oscar gold, what with director Danny Boyle coming freshly off the Oscar-dominating “Slumdog Millionaire.” 127 Hour seems like a movie no one really wants to see because it features a scene of self-amputation. Hopefully it gets more nominations than “Into the Wild” received which was famously snubbed three years ago. I’m curious as to how many nominations the frontrunner “The Social Network” will get. I’m not completely sold that it will get a tremendous showing in the craft categories, but love for the film could find it a lot of love. I’m hoping they find plenty of love for “The Town” which I had been predicting would be invited to the big dance the second after I saw it. While I hope many of my predictions are correct, I really do hope there are plenty of suprises hidden up the Academy’s sleeve. Only time will tell, until then check out my predictions below:

Best Picture
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network"
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”

There are 11 films vying for these ten slots. I believe the well-loved, but little seen indie “Winter’s Bone” is on the outs, but it could just as easily sneak in there and bump off “127 Hours” a wonderful film that many just don’t even want to see. The only other vulnerable films are “The Town or “The Kids Are All Right” but I can’t see anything else (like “Blue Valentine” for instance) besides “Bone” making the cut.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky “Black Swan”
David O. Russell “The Fighter”
Christopher Nolan “Inception”
Tom Hooper “The King's Speech”
David Fincher “The Social Network”

I think there are four sure things here. I’m wishy washy with David O. Russell, but he did receive a Golden Globe and Director’s Guild nod, so I’m pretty confident. Although the well-liked Coens could edge him out here

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges “True Grit”
Robert Duvall “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg “The Social Network”
Colin Firth “The King's Speech”
James Franco “127 Hours”

I’m kind of confident these five actors are sure things. I’m not really sure that Ryan Gosling or Javier Bardem (a former Best Supporting Actor winner) could make it in there, but weirder things have happened (see 2007’s surprise nod for Tommy Lee Jones, a former Best Supporting Actor winner).

Best Actress
Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence “Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman “Black Swan"
Hailee Steinfeld “True Grit”

Here is where things start to get interesting. I believe there are four sure things here. I’m going out on limb and predicting the Academy will show some common sense (as BAFTA did recently) and place Steinfeld in the Best Actress category even though the studio has been campaigning for her in Supporting. They did this with Keisha Castle-Hughes in 2003 and most recently with Kate Winslet in The Reader in 2008. If she doesn’t make it here, then I can see literally anyone replacing her such as Michelle Williams (certainly deserving), Julianne Moore (fingers crossed!) or even the always likable Hilary Swank, who got a surprise SAG nomination. I’d love it just to see Round 3 of Swank vs. Bening. Although at this point, it’s Portman’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush “The King's Speech”

An interesting race here, while not as dramatic as the Actress races. Garfield seems weak because he didn’t get a SAG nom, but he bounced back with a nod from BAFTA, a group who in general wasn’t as warm with The Social Network as much as other groups have been (although to be fair they weren’t that warm to The Fighter either). Mark Ruffalo is the only other potentionally weak one, with a possibility of either Sam Rockwell or the SAG-nominated John Hawkes from “Winter’s Bone.” SAG is notorious for rewarding smaller, more indie type roles, so I think that was really just a fluke.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter “The King's Speech”
Mila Kunis “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver “Animal Kingdom”

And here we are back to the madness of this extremely strong year for female actresses. If Steinfeld does get nominated here she will bump out Jacki Weaver for sure. This fifth slot is also a head scratcher this year because it’s possible for a number of different performers to get a surprise nod. Maybe Barbara Hershey from “Black Swan?” (She did get a BAFTA nod). Who knows, maybe Kunis gets bumped out too? Could critic darling Leslie Manville get placed here (she’s also a possibility in Lead although from what I hear she’s really part of an ensemble). I’m not confident that Weaver gets in and in fact this the category I’m probably the least confident in.

Best Adapted Screenplay
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter's Bone”

I’m debating how much love the Academy will give “127 Hours” a film that has terrific direction, writing, acting, cinematography, editing, music, sound etc. and yet I can actually picture it getting the shaft just because it features a difficult-to-watch amputation scene (the Academy wasn’t very kind to the similar “Into the Wild” three years ago). So having said that, I’m not very sure whether “127 Hours” can make it here and if it doesn’t it’ll certainly make room for “The Town” the more likely of the weaker Best Picture possibilities.

Best Original Screenplay
“Black Swan”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King's Speech"
“The Fighter”

This is another category that will be tough to call. I want to say that Mike Leigh will get in for “Another Year” but with it’s awards chances waning over the past coupe months I’m not too sure about that which is why I think “Black Swam” and “The Fighter” are better possibilities, but not sure things.

Best Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland”
“The King's Speech”
“Shutter Island”
“True Grit”

Best Cinematography
“Black Swan”
“Shutter Island”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”

Best Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Black Swan”
“The King's Speech”
“The Tempest”
“True Grit”

Best Editing
“127 Hours”
“Black Swan”
“The Social Network”
“The Fighter”

Best Makeup
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Barney’s Version”
“The Wolfman”

Best Original Score
“127 Hours”
“Alice in Wonderland”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”

Best Original Song
‘Haven’t Seen the Last of Me’ from “Burlesque”
‘If I Rise’ from “127 Hours”
‘I See the Light’ from “Tangled”
‘We Belong Together’ from “Toy Story 3”
‘Shine’ from “Waiting for Superman”

Sound Editing
“Iron Man 2”
“Toy Story 3”
“TRON Legacy”

Sound Mixing
“The Town”
“TRON Legacy”
“True Grit”

Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
“Iron Man 2”
“TRON Legacy”

Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”

Documentary Feature
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
“Inside Job”
“The Tillman Story”
“Waiting for Superman”

Foreign Language Film
Algeria, “Hors la Loi” (“Outside the Law”)
Canada, “Incendies”
Denmark, “In a Better World”
Mexico, “Biutiful”
South Africa, “Life, above All”


Anonymous said...

I’d bump Toy Story 3 off the Best Picture list, because the animated category was supposedly created to avert the crisis of a cartoon being best picture.

Best Director looks right on.

Robert Duvall for “Get Low”? Really?

The Best Actress category is pretty loaded, if you win that you’ve really done some good work.

Best Supporting Actor, go away King’s Speech, stop eating up all the nominations

Best supporting actress, see above.

Best adapted, give it to Winter’s Bone, it would be the right thing to do.

Best original, academy show some compassion and give it to Inception, easily the most “original” screenplay in a long time, no?

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