Monday, January 21, 2008

UPDATED:Oscar Predictions

UPDATE: Alrighty, so a few of my hunches were totally wrong. Atonement DID get a Best Picture nomination, but you could tell that its buzz had weakened because poor Joe Wright didn't get a Best Directing nom. Hey, but good job Jason Reitman, who was a complete surprise in the Directing category for Juno. Juno's best picture chances have increased tremendously with this nomination.

Tommy Lee Jones was also a big surprise, he had been talked about a lot in the months past, but his buzz had also died down. I guess not. Good for Laura Linney getting in there for The Savages, a film I particularly didn't like, but I enjoy her so good job. Kudos to Ruby Dee who was one of two noms for former frontrunner American Gangster. If she were to win, she'd be the oldest acting winner and the one with the shortest screen time (under 5 mins for anyone who's counting).

There wasn't much love for Into the Wild unfortunately. Although Halbrook got in there as expected. and it turns out that at last minute the scores for Into the Wild, There Will Be Blood and Enchanted were deemed ineligible. Although Enchanted pulled a 'Dreamgirls' and got 3 of its songs nominated for Best Original Song.

For everything the Academy got right (Javier Bardem! Ellen Page! Viggo Mortensen!) they also got something wrong (no Emile Hirsch? The guy lost so much weight, he turned himself into one of the Olsen twins! No, Ryan Gosling? He made you believe a sex doll was a real person! And Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth The Golden Age? Seriously? I mean seriously??) Oh well, life's little mysteries.

click here to read all the nominees:

[from Monday]

Ok ok ok. So the Oscar nominations will finally be revealed Tuesday morning, and if you're at all a dork like me, you can't f-ing wait. With so many uncertainties, I'm not sure how I am going to be able to sleep Monday night. It's more exciting than Christmas! I'm not saying I'm the greatest Oscar prognosticator, but here are my fearless predictions of the nominees. Let's see how many of these actually match up.

Here are a few highlights of what i think might occur come Tuseday morning:

Atonement gets the shaft. I think Atonement will pick up some technical award noms, but will be mostly shut out of the main awards. It's most likely big nominee will be Best Supporting Actress for Soarise Ronan, but otherwise the DP and costume designers will be extremely happy on Tuesday. Atonement seemed like a BEst Pic lock months ago, but if I think I'm right, it won't get as many as previously thought.

I'm going out on a wild limb here and saying the same thing aboutSweeney Todd. I don't even think Johnny Depp will be nominated because he was shafted by SAG. Then again SAG hadn't even seen the movie when there noms came out, so that very well could have changed, but I'm just going with my gut.

I think Diving Bell & the Butterfly has a good shot at getting more noms than a hit like Juno. If Juno does get nominated for best picture, what else could it possible get? Actress for Ellen Page sure and Original Screenplay. But what else? Editing? No, cause it's a comedy. Cinematography? No, cause it's a comedy. Art Direction? No cause it's a comedy. See a pattern. Juno may be a fantastic movie, but it's not a technical achievement to behold. Diving Bell is pretty much guaranteed a slot for Best Director, and it could squeeze into the top race. We'll see.

I think the big question, is how many awards Into the Wild will receive. It's had an up and down award season; it was the top nominated film at the SAGs and the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. It was almost completely snubbed by the Globes (although it did win best song for "Guaranteed") Director Sean Penn got a DGA nod, but it didn't get a PGA nod. It's also received nods from the WGA the ACE. So there's lots of support for this film, but the question remains, exactly how much?

The biggest question is what film will actually receive the most nods. Most of these films will naba few acting nods and technical awards, but there's no Titanic or Lord of the Rings. The year of the sweeping epic is over. (That is unless Atonement gets nominated, but we'll see!)

so without further ado, here are my predictions!

Best Picture
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Diving Bell & the Butterfly

Alternates: Atonement, Into the Wild

Best Actor
Daniel-Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Alternate: Johnny Depp

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages

Alternates: Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Casey Affleck, Assassination of Jesse James
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Best Supporting Actress:
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Alternate, Soarise Ronan, Atonement

Best Director:
Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Original Screenplay

The Savages
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton

Adapted Screenplay
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild
The Diving Bell & the Butterfly

The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
No Country For Old Men
Assassination of Jesse James
There Will Be Blood

No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild
The Bourne Ultimatum
Michael Clayton

Original Score
Lust, Caution
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild

Original Song
Come So Far (Got So Far to Go), Hairspray
That’s How You Know, Enchanted
Guaranteed, Into the Wild
Falling Slowly, Once
Le Festin, Rataouille

Art Direction
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
The Golden Compass

Costume Design
Sweeney Todd
Assassination of Jesse James

Best Sound Mixing
Sweeney Todd
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Sound Effects Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
Pirates of the Caribbean

Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean
I Am Legend

Pirates of the Caribbean

Animated Film
The Simpsons Movie

Foreign Film
The Trap
Days of Darkness
The Counterfeiters

Documentary Feature
No End in Sight
Body of War
Lake of Fire


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